---
title: "ChEn 433 Energy Use"
author: David Lignell
date: Class 2
slideNumber: false
width: 1600
height: 1000
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css: styles.css
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    data-background-image: "http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/browse/2010/08/19/20100819_003221_4096_0304.jpg"
---

# US Energy Use
<embed src="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/total_energy.pdf" width="1600" height="800">

## US Energy Sectors
<embed src="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/css_2019_energy.pdf" width="1600" height="800">

::: notes
Total sources = 100.2 = electrical losses (black) + end-use sectors = 37.1 + 75.9
Note the 1/3: memorize this for the various sectors.
:::

## US Energy Sectors

Note the factors: 1/3 (roughly)

:::::: {.columns}

::: {.column}
***Sources***

- Petroleum: 1/3
- Natural Gas: 1/3
- Other: 1/3
    - Renewable
    - Coal
    - Nuclear
:::
::: {.column}
***End Uses***

- Transportation: 1/3
- Industrial: 1/3
- Other: 1/3
    - Residential
    - Commercial
:::

::::::

# Amounts and splits
::: incremental
* Why is it important to know energy amounts by type and by use sector?
* Issues
    - Conservation
    - Energy technology changes
    - Economics, politics, etc.
* The overall impact needs to be weighted by the impact to the "sector" times the importances of the sector.
    - There's a name for this ➔ ?
    - Base rate fallacy
:::

----
## Base rate fallacy: NPR
<iframe width="1600px" height="700px" src="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/20/1029582399/planet-money-investigates-the-base-rate-fallacy-as-it-pertains-to-the-pandemic" ></iframe>

## Base rate fallacy: simple example
* Utah drought
* The Great Salt Lake is dying ([or already dead?](https://catalystmagazine.net/obituary-for-great-salt-lake-even-lakes-are-not-immortal/?fbclid=IwAR2ZcRUgUdThHWm1TcKDVlOqdmhbJL7mf2rXbXjG_-Fbe9HotgpS8S0dUEw)).

::: fragment
>To bring the lake back to a healthy state would require approximately 29% of additional water resources to be directed back into the lake’s tributaries and the lake itself. 
><small>[---The water that couldn't save, Deseret News](https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/4/7/22370024/the-water-that-couldnt-save-great-salt-lake-utah-water-conservation-drought-crisis-california?fbclid=IwAR2h1LNAuvhCCrDc9ZWUJcBm0WP15GpdYdSOOODsxQdkw0YQbM-LfCGafdM)</small>
:::

::: fragment
* [Municipal use is around 10%](https://utahrivers.org/are-we-running-out-of-water); [82% goes to agriculture](https://www.ksl.com/article/35054495/82-percent-of-utah-water-goes-to-farmers-mdash-heres-why).
    * If municipalities conserved 30%, that would only account for 3% of the needed 30% for the health of the lake. 
:::

## [Base rate fallacy example](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy)
* Suppose COVID tests have a 5% false positive rate
    - meaning, whenever you don't have COVID the test says you do 5% of the time.
* You get a positive result.
* What are the chances you really have it?

::: fragment
**Need more information**
:::

## [Base rate fallacy example](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy)

* Suppose 1 in 80 people (1.25%) have COVID
* COVID test:
    - 100% accurate if you have COVID, 
    - but has a 5% false positive rate 
* You test positive 
* What is the probability you actually have COVID?
    - A. 95%
    - B. 80%
    - C. 20%
    - D. 5%
    - E. 1.25%

## Base rate fallacy example {data-background-image="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/brf.png" data-background-opacity="0.5"}

* If there were no false positives and you tested positive, you'd have it 100%
* Consider 80 people
    * 1 has COVID
    * 79 don't
    * positive tests:
        * 1 that has COVID
        * 79 * 5% = 3.95 who don't
    * chances of having COVID given the positive test = 1/(1+3.95) ≈ 1/5 = 20%
* Only 1/80 have it, but the test says 5/80 do. 
* The question is, **given a positive test** what are the chances of having COVID?
    * The "base rate" is 5, not 80, and the answer is 1/5 not 1/80. 


## Base rate fallacy example: Bayes' law
$$P(C|+)P(+) = P(+|C)P(C)$$
$$P(C|+) = \frac{P(+|C)P(C)}{P(+)}$$
$$P(C|+) = \frac{(1)(1/80)}{\underbrace{1/80}_{\mbox{+ test, have COVID}} + \underbrace{0.05(79/80)}_{\mbox{+ test, no COVID}}} = 20.2\%$$

# Units
::: incremental
- What were the units of energy on the first couple slides?
    - Quadrillion Btu (per year)
- **What's a Quadrillion Btu?!**
:::

## Units

:::::: {.columns}
::: {.column width=70%}

<p style="text-align:left">
The US used 100 Quadrillion BTU in 2019. <br>Convert this to the following units:
</p>

- MW
- Number of average size coal power plants @ [384 MW each](http://www.americaspower.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Coal-Facts-August-31-2018.pdf).
- Number of average size wind turbines @ [2.43 MW each](https://css.umich.edu/factsheets/wind-energy-factsheet)
- Number of olympic size swimming pools boiled.
- [Number of Boeing 747 flights around the world?](https://science.howstuffworks.com/transport/flight/modern/question192.htm)
- Number of [cubic miles of oil](https://global.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/pdf/CMO_color_flyer.pdf)
:::
::: {.column width=30%}
<img src="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/cmo.png" width=400>
:::
::::::

::: fragment
**There is something wrong with second two bullets? Can you see what it is?**
:::

# [Capacity factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor)
$$CF=\frac{\mbox{Actual energy output in some time period}}{\mbox{Maximum possible energy output in that time period}}$$

::: fragment
Loosely, it's the fraction of time the plant is running.
:::

::: fragment
Or, the fraction of time the wind is blowing
:::

::: fragment
Or, the fraction of time the sun is shining  
(or the average to peak sunlight ratio throughout the day).
:::

## Capacity factor

<img src="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/capacity_factors.png" width=1000>

* [EIA source: renewable](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_b)
* [EIA source: nonrenewable](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_a)

*These are actual utilizations, not necessarily the maximum possible capacity factor when considering maintenance, etc.*

# World energy use
* [BP World Energy Survey](https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf#page13)

<img src="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/world_energy_split_bp.png" width=1200>

## World energy use
* [BP World Energy Survey](https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf#page13)

<img src="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/world_energy_split.png" width=800>

## [Energy use by country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_primary_energy_consumption_and_production)

<img src="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/energy_by_country.png" width=1200 title="linear and log scales; top 50 countries, nearly a factor of 100 spread.">

* China and the US consume as much energy as the next 23 countries combined.

## World energy consumption history
<img src="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/world_energy_consumption.png" width=1200>

<small>*[BP statistical review of world energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/downloads.html)*</small>

## World energy consumption history
<img src="/Users/dol4/Box/teaching/433/lectures/lecture_02_energy_use_cmo/world_energy_consumption.png" width=600>

<small>*[BP statistical review of world energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/downloads.html)*</small>

Observations?

::: incremental
* Nearly linear trend over 60 years.
* This trend is scary when we think about the limited nature of our primary energy sources. 
    * How many wars are fought over resources?
    * [Water, energy, food nexus](https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/water-food-and-energy/)
    * This plot, and associated climate change drives the push for renewable energy.
* Compare this plot to  [economics/recession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States).
:::

# A sense of scale: Costs
> Replacing the current world oil, gas, coal, and electricity production capacity could cost about $10 trillion (current [2010] dollars) or about one-fourth of annual GWP. In 2000, investment in energy supply systems was estimated to be 15-20% of total capital investment, or 3-4% GWP. 

> We need to bear in mind that these past investments have been worth many trillions of dollars, and no substantial change in the overall patter of energy production or use will take place without comparable new investments. Investments on the order of $50 billion, such as those being made in nuclear power plants globally over the next decade, are substantial, but they pale compared with the total cost of the effort we face, which as we just saw runs into the tens of trillions of dollars. ---Crane et al. "A Cubic Mile of Oil"

## A sense of scale: 1 CMO of Wind Turbines
:::::: {.columns}
::: {.column}
* 2,478,571 average sized land-based wind turbine
    * Build 953 per week for 50 years
    * 2 MW (typical)
    * 8751 [average size land-based wind farms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_onshore_wind_farms)
        - 566 MW each (the avg size above 250 MW)
        - 283 turbines each at 1.65 MW
        - Build 5 farms a week for 33 years
    * [Typical turbine](https://blog.arcadia.com/common-sizes-wind-turbines/): [Vestas V90](https://nozebra.ipapercms.dk/Vestas/Communication/2mw-platform-brochure/?page=8), 2 MW, 90 m diameter, 80 m high tower
    * Using a 35% capacity factor.
:::
::: {.column}
<img src="https://en.wind-turbine-models.com/getfoto-5lk9tnZ0C7V-turbine-vestas_v-90.jpg" height=450>
<img src="turbine_blade.gif" height=450>
<br>
<img src="wind_3CMO.png" width=400, title="3 CMO for typical wind farm area">

*<small>3 CMO for typical wind farm area*</small>
:::
::::::